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Ouch. On one hand, Australia's long-running campaign to organize the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to put on the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of people to the South Australian capital next November.

This won't occur. Instead, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a significant disappointment to many people who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's shift from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials truly desired the bid to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the government was walking away.

This contrasted with the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the administration have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and at times outright opposed.

There is little sign the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to look at it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to together combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the international cooperation on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the global community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in recent days, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to confront the oil producers that provided the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a summit hindered from the top if his administration managed the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to organize an unprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was necessary. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has empirically had an impact in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend UN conferences see the minister as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations say it is crucial to their success.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a leader holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the Cop other than making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unresolved issues. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the best chance available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.