A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
