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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It commonly serves as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or merely the most shocking shock.

However the latest field is fundamentally unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions falling away and recent underperformers improving collectively. During an normal year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a wild and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the level of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this is not a typical season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But Johnson falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still